At the beginning of 2020, my home state of Illinois legalized online sports gambling. I thought nothing of that because within no time at all, there were no sports. Thanks, COVID. But then sports started to come back. I still thought nothing of it. I was too busy being poor, thanks again to COVID. But then my oldest son, who always has been a bad influence on me, suggested I start gambling on NFL football. I signed up.
Now here we are, wrapping up the NFL season tomorrow with the Super Bowl, and I will finish the season with winnings of right about $1400. I didn’t just bet football. I’ve also bet baseball, baseketball, hockey, soccer, tennis, golf, and mma, all to a lesser degree. It doesn’t matter what sport I bet. I’m a terrible bettor. A former Chicago Bear football player named Doug Buffone used to say, “Those who gamble live in shambles.” That’s me. I could bet on a coin flip 100 times and get it right maybe 10 times. So, how did I win $1400 in 5 months? Well, I may be terrible at betting, but I’m great at math. Here’s the system …
First, see what online sports books are available in your state. If none, you can look offshore, but be very wary of offshore books.
Then, find sign-up offers giving you free money. Every online sports book is offering them, like this one from Points Bet …
Many more offers exist that give you free bets, some into the hundreds of dollars. There is a mathematical way to turn those free bets into real money at about an 80% rate, but that is a topic that doesn’t apply to this Super Bowl. Take the free bets, watch this video from professional gambler Captain Jack Andrews (fake name, but real sharp math nerd), and turn those free bets into real cash at a rate of about 80 cents on the dollar. I didn’t find Captain Jack until after I had squandered most of my free sign-up bets, so I missed out on some potential winnings this NFL season.
Capitalism is the reason I can give you guaranteed Super Bowl winners. These online sports books are dying to have you lose money with them, so besides giving you free bets, they also provide special boosted odds to entice you to bet with them. This is where math comes in. You will want to play all those boosted odds bets to the maximum allowable amount. For example, here’s a 55% boosted odds bet I made on the Super Bowl with Draftkings for $50.
The $50 max bet at odds boosted by 55% will net me $64.33 If the KC Chiefs win by more than 3. Then, I bet the other side at a different sports book, in this case, Points Bet.
I bet Tampa Bay +3 points for $52 to win $57.20. So, do the math. If KC wins by more than 3 points, I win $64.33 minus the $52 I bet on TB = a $12.33 profit. If TB wins or loses by less than 3 points, I win $57.20 minus the $50 I bet on KC = a $7.20 profit. I could have evened that out a bit more to a $10/$10 split, but I’m leaning KC’s way, which should guarantee a Tampa victory.
This is known as an arbitrage bet, where both sides of a contest are bet with net profit guaranteed regardless of the result. I will have 3 other arbitrage bets going for the Super Bowl using boosted odds that will net me a minimum of $25 guaranteed. That is how I slowly built my $1400 bankroll along with taking advantage of all the “no brainer” promotional bets that get offered to entice you to bet with a particular sports book. Here’s Draftkings giving all bettors a chance to double the max wager of $10 if a touchdown is scored in the Super Bowl.
Will a touchdown be scored in this Super Bowl? You can bet on that, and I did. Cha-ching! Thank you, Draftkings. It is always nice to be given 10 bucks.
Sure, I place other bets that I will surely lose, but I don’t bet more than a couple bucks. On some sports books, I can place wagers as low as $0.10! I can have 10 other bets going on the Super Bowl, such as betting on the color of the Gatorade that gets dumped on the winning coach, and not spend more than a buck. I can have a little fun watching those bets throughout the game, but not sweat any part of the game since I will be winning guaranteed money.
And finally, you will notice the 2 bets above have “cash out” options. These change as the game goes on. If it appears that KC will easily win by more than 3 points, I may take some level of risk and cash out my bet on TB. Let’s say KC is winning 38 – 10 entering the 4th quarter and Tom Brady is hurt. It is unlikely TB will get within 3 points. Maybe a $2 cash out option is offered. I will cash out, and that 2 bucks gets added to my KC winnings.
The only way I don’t win something tomorrow is if the game isn’t played. And that almost happened per this story.
Talk about a close shave.
And whatever you do, don’t do this …
… unless you have a lot of mattresses to sell to be able to hedge your bet. He’s giving refunds on mattresses he sells if Tampa Bay wins. So, he will potentially win money on his Tampa Bay bet or earn money on mattress sales if KC wins and covers the point spread. I will note that sports gambling is NOT legal in Texas, so Mattress Mack flew to Colorado and placed his bet using the Draftkings phone app from the airport. Then he turned around and flew back to Texas. That’s dedication with a touch of craziness and marketing savvy added.
Enjoy the Super Bowl tomorrow. Go, uh … team! I don’t really care who wins. Just play the game.
Jim Flanigan Looks at the World 